Well, I think it is finally time for The Avengers to let go of the top spot. While it should easily cruise to number 2, it is MIB III's turn at #1 with its highly anticipated debut on this extra-long Holiday weekend.

Men In Black III is a tough one to judge. It will open big, the only question is whether it will be a huge blockbuster opening or just a modest hit. Some say Will Smith's star has faded. Perhaps a tiny bit, but for the most part I think he is still one of a very small group of actors/actresses that can all-but-guarantee a hit. Plus, this new one looks like it has added another dimension not included in the first two, time travel. More importantly however, it has been focusing on this aspect of the movie along with the usual light-hearted sci-fi in its advertising. Is the franchise a little bit tired? Maybe. But it is definitely a proven brand and I would expect it to at least take down Smith's previous opening high of $77 million with I Am Legend, and more likely open in the low-80s to low-90s over the 4-day frame.

Avengers will still bring in crowds though this weekend will be its first true staying-power test. Boosted by the long weekend, I would expect it to have a modest drop to somewhere in the mid-high-30s.

Chernobyl Diaries is probably the hardest to predict. The two biggest advantages it has: (A) it is definitely not a family film and as such could be good counter-programming to Men in Black III and the other light-hearted fare that is out right now and (B) the commercials have stressed its connection to the very successful Paranormal Activities series, for which it shares a writer and producer. But it is not supernatural and does not included a slashing monster villain, which are often the case when modern horror movies open big. I would expect it to have a decent opening, but nothing at all like its producer/writers Paranormal films.

Here is my full list of top 10 predictions (Over the 4 days):

Men In Black III $85 million
Avengers $39 million
Chernobyl Diaries $16 million
Battleship $14.5 million
The Dictator $11 million
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel  $9.5 million
Dark Shadows $7 million
What to Expect When Your Expecting $6.5 million
Hunger Games $2.5 million
Think Like A Man/ The Lucky One $1 million

What do you think? How big will MIB III open?


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