I said in my predictions this weekend's box office race could be close. Well, it looks like I was very wrong. Snow White and the Huntsman put up an estimated $20million on Friday alone! I didn't expect it to crack $40million for the whole weekend, and now it would appear to be a lock to pass $50mil. Very impressive; I guess I wasn't the only one who thought it looked very entertaining.
MIB 3, meanwhile put up a solid $8.3mil while the Avengers took in an additional $5.6mil which is enough to pass The Dark Knight for 3rd on the all-time domestic chart. I figured it would do well but if you told me in April that the Avengers would be top 3 all-time I would have called you nuts. Congrats to Whedon and Co.
While far from perfect last week, I think I did a pretty good job on my predictions overall. Figured I'd try again.
Now onto the predicting...
Can Snow White and the Huntsman take #1 this weekend? I think so but it could end up being close. The biggest question with this film as I see it is "who is it's audience?" Twilight fans who like Kristen Stewart? Thor fans who like Chris Hemsworth? Fans of the 1937 classic? Maybe it is just those looking for an action-adventure escape this weekend? I don't really know, but I do know that I will be part of that audience. I think it looks like a cool, exciting movie. I expect it to put up a nice number, but so will MIB 3 in its second weekend and Avengers in its fifth. We shall see.
Here is my top 10 Box Office Predictions for June 1-3
1. Snow White and the Huntsman, $37million
2. The Avengers, $25.5million
3. MIB 3, $25million
4. Battleship, $6million
5. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, $5million
6. What to Expect When You're Expecting, $4.5million
7. The Dictator, $4.25million
8. For Greater Glory, $4million
9. Chernobyl Diaries, $3.75million
10. Dark Shadows, $3.5million
How will Snow White and the Huntsman perform in its opening weekend? Does The Avengers have a shot at regaining the top spot? Will the Hunger Games finally drop out of the top 10 in its eleventh(!) weekend? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.
Men in Black 3 took in $70million, well below my personal expectations but still a pretty nice haul over the 4-day Memorial Day weekend for the latest installment in a series whose last film was poorly received a decade ago.
The Avengers meanwhile not only held on tight for second place but put up an excellent $46.9million. It is now only about $10million away from passing the Dark Knight for 3rd all-time domestic and worldwide it has now put up an insane $1.3BILLION(!), good for 4th all-time.
Chernobyl Diaries on the other hand grossed only $9.3million, opening in sixth place, below MIB 3 and four movies in their 2nd-4th weekends. I don't think that's exactly what Warner Brothers was hoping for.
Here is the entire top 10 Box-Office numbers for the 4-day Memorial Day Weekend (Studio Estimates):
1. Men in Black 3, $70million
2. The Avengers, $46.9million
3. Battleship, $13.8million
4. The Dictator, $11.8million
5. Dark Shadows, $9.4million
6. Chernobyl Diaries $9.3million
7. What to Expect When You're Expecting, $8.9million
8. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, $8.2million
9. The Hunger Games, $2.9million
10. Think Like a Man, $1.8million
Well, I think it is finally time for The Avengers to let go of the top spot. While it should easily cruise to number 2, it is MIB III's turn at #1 with its highly anticipated debut on this extra-long Holiday weekend.
Men In Black III is a tough one to judge. It will open big, the only question is whether it will be a huge blockbuster opening or just a modest hit. Some say Will Smith's star has faded. Perhaps a tiny bit, but for the most part I think he is still one of a very small group of actors/actresses that can all-but-guarantee a hit. Plus, this new one looks like it has added another dimension not included in the first two, time travel. More importantly however, it has been focusing on this aspect of the movie along with the usual light-hearted sci-fi in its advertising. Is the franchise a little bit tired? Maybe. But it is definitely a proven brand and I would expect it to at least take down Smith's previous opening high of $77 million with I Am Legend, and more likely open in the low-80s to low-90s over the 4-day frame.
Avengers will still bring in crowds though this weekend will be its first true staying-power test. Boosted by the long weekend, I would expect it to have a modest drop to somewhere in the mid-high-30s.
Chernobyl Diaries is probably the hardest to predict. The two biggest advantages it has: (A) it is definitely not a family film and as such could be good counter-programming to Men in Black III and the other light-hearted fare that is out right now and (B) the commercials have stressed its connection to the very successful Paranormal Activities series, for which it shares a writer and producer. But it is not supernatural and does not included a slashing monster villain, which are often the case when modern horror movies open big. I would expect it to have a decent opening, but nothing at all like its producer/writers Paranormal films.
Here is my full list of top 10 predictions (Over the 4 days):
Men In Black III $85 million
Avengers $39 million
Chernobyl Diaries $16 million
Battleship $14.5 million
The Dictator $11 million
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel $9.5 million
Dark Shadows $7 million
What to Expect When Your Expecting $6.5 million
Hunger Games $2.5 million
Think Like A Man/ The Lucky One $1 million
What do you think? How big will MIB III open?